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2025 Dietary Guidelines Group Seed Oils With Ultra-Processed Food. That Alone Is a Breakthrough

This Year’s U.S. Dietary Guidelines call out industrially refined seed oils as problematic.

The US Dietary Guidelines will be released in just a few days. They are expected to make a historic change regarding refined seed oils. Departing from decades of guidance that treats these oils as an unqualified nutritional upgrade, they’re calling out the fact that most seed oils are ultraprocessed, and their health effects merit closer examination.

(You may have been led to believe that seed oils’ health effects have been thoroughly examined. They have not. And I’m writing another article that exposes why the nutritionists who claim to cite evidence showing seed oils are not all that bad, or maybe even healthy, do not understand what they’re citing.)

us-soybean-acreage-increase-from-1900-2000.
Data for the above image comes from https://www.soyinfocenter.com

 

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The tiniest shift on this issue, which is basically what we’ve got here, must have faced significant structural resistance. Industrial seed oils are not prevalent because of consumer demand; most people have no idea what they are or when they’re eating them. They’re prevalent because much of our modern food system has been built around producing corn, soy, and canola—the three most prevalent refined seed oils in people’s diets. Seed oil crops are well-suited to large-scale, mechanized agriculture. So today, replacing them with traditional animal fats would wreak havoc with our entire food production system. At the same time, their low cost makes them foundational to the business models of processed foods, fast food, and commercial food service. Taken together, these factors mean that powerful economic interests are invested in maintaining the status quo.

US Farmers Benefit When US Dietary Guidelines Promote Seed Oil

To understand why even tentative recognition of seed oils as problematic has been so difficult to achieve, it helps to start with scale. The first chart, below, shows how the amount of U.S. acreage devoted to growing soybeans (the predominant seed oil in our food supply) exploded during the 20th century, from a marginal crop a century ago to one of the dominant uses of U.S. farmland today. This reveals just how novel the oil is in the human diet, as soybeans were a minor crop in the United States prior to the 20th century.

Soybeans have slowly reshaped our entire food production system. First, by serving as a source of industrial engine lubrication for Henry Ford’s automotive industry, later, for the planes, tanks, and guns during WWII. Following the war, soy oil was replaced by petroleum. But we kept growing soy because farmers had started using soymeal to fatten animals faster than grass could do. Today, soy meal is also used as a meat extender or replacement in numerous processed foods.

The American Heart Association Proclaims Seed Oils “Heart Healthy”

There was really no market for soy oil until the American Heart Association started recommending it as a cholesterol-lowering agent. Thanks in part to their continuing ideology that cholesterol is harmful, we now eat far more soy oil than we do butter, lard, tallow, and all other animal fats combined.

I do not know if the guidelines will define seed oils the same way I do. So, at this point, I want to clarify that there are eight refined seed oils that I’m concerned about: Corn, canola, cottonseed, soy, sunflower, safflower, rice-bran, and grapeseed. (See my previous article for The MAHA Reporthere). I borrowed from Quentin Tarantino to coin a catchy term for this collection of problematic oils: The hateful eight.

If you’re not already aware of why they might be harmful, I encourage you to visit my website. You can freely read articles telling the story of how scientists used poorly designed studies to convince a trusting generation of dietitians and doctors that saturated fats caused heart attacks, and seed oils prevented them. I also discuss links between seed oils and oxidative stress that dietitians and MDs like myself do not learn about during our training.

How Previous USDA Guidelines Have Quietly Forced Americans To Eat Seed Oil

While you may not look to the USDA Dietary Guidelines for personal nutrition advice, what they recommend still matters to you—and your family.

Most seed oil consumption occurs without anyone’s awareness, through packaged foods, restaurant meals, and institutional meals. And a good portion of that consumption is essentially mandated by law. You see, USDA guidelines set the defaults for federal food programs, schools, universities, hospitals, long-term care facilities, correctional institutions, and other environments where people eat what is served to them, not what they select from a grocery shelf. Even individuals who go out of their way to avoid seed oils in their own homes remain affected by these standards the minute they step outside to grab a bite to eat.

The second chart estimates just how many people are exposed to seed oils daily in settings where choice is limited because federal guidance directly determines what ends up on the plate. The total estimated captive market is upwards of 50 million. As you can see in chart 2, below, using processed seed oils to make processed foods has been quite a good business model.

Chart #2: Estimating how many Americans have no choice but to eat seed oils on any given day.

Institutional Setting

Estimated People Fed Daily

Primary Source

K–12 School Lunch Programs 29.7 million School Nutrition Association
Child & Adult Care Food Program (Children) 4.4 million Economic Research Service
College & University Dining Halls 10–12 million U.S. college enrollment & residential meal plan estimates
Incarcerated / Detained (Prisons & Jails) ~2.0 million Prison Policy Initiative
Nursing Homes ~1.3 million Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Assisted Living Facilities ~1.0 million+ AHCA/NCAL
Hospital Inpatients (Average Daily Census) ~0.51 million JAMA Network
Homeless Shelters (Congregate Meals) ~0.30 million HUD point-in-time / shelter census data
Inpatient Rehabilitation Facilities ~0.10–0.15 million National rehab utilization estimates
Psychiatric Inpatient Facilities ~0.10–0.12 million Behavioral health census estimates
Adult Day Meal Programs ~0.12 million USDA CACFP adult day participation
Active-Duty Military (Contextual) ~1.3 million USAFacts
Total (conservative estimate) ~ 52-55 million

And remember, we’re not even talking about the fact that seed oils have replaced olive oil, tallow, lard and peanut oil in restaurants, take-out, and convenience foods. The total number of people exposed to seed oils daily, often without realizing it, is much higher than 50 million.

How Seed Oils Impact All Of Us

If you personally avoid seed oil, you may be tempted to think that it’s hardly worth the trouble of fighting huge systems because you’re personally doing just fine. That may be so, for you as an individual. However, we are not islands. We are members of a society. And our society is increasingly disrupted by the burden of sickness. As healthcare systems allocate more resources toward treating chronic illness, fewer resources remain available for acute and emergent care. In practical terms, this means higher costs for everyone, increasing strain on the medical workforce, and reduced availability of timely emergency services—even for those whose own diets are otherwise careful. By calling out seed oils, the new USDA guidance will at least enable us to ask these sorts of questions.

And the first step towards making meaningful evidence-based connections between massive changes to our food supply and massive declines in our health as a Nation is better data.

Seed Oil Consumption Not Properly Tracked

You see, in spite of its ubiquity in the food supply, the government does not track our seed oil consumption. This allows certain academics to claim that we do not eat enough, and then urge us to increase our consumption.

However, independent researchers who estimate our true intake from the only data available have discovered that we eat quite a lot. Along the lines of what you might expect, after looking at the remarkable increase in production shown in my first graph, our consumption has increased 1000 fold between 1909 and 1999. As of 1999, roughly 10–15% of calories were coming from refined seed oils.

Importantly, since 2000, our consumption may have risen significantly higher. In the absence of reliable publications, I’ve compiled my own data using Statista and related sources. I suggest that the figure is now closer to 20-30%. In other words, our intake has doubled in the past 20 years.

Now, let’s look at the changes to just a few of the most well-tracked chronic health conditions during that time. I want to focus on that time period because, as shown in Figure 1 of this publication, other key drivers of metabolic health have been relatively stable in that time period (sugar, flour, red meat), and seed oil is an outlier variable that deserves to be studied far more than it has been.

The new guidelines will, quite likely, lead to better data. Better data will help to raise awareness of the very concerning correlations between seed oil consumption and serious illnesses, including many affecting the brain, as listed in Chart 3. Nutrition scientists have been denied the tools and the permission to study seed oils independently because of previous assumptions about their health effects. This is partly why few people have even looked for the correlation I’m describing, and it’s a necessary first step to identifying potential causative links.

Chart #3 Correlations between seed oil consumption, which doubled between 2000-2020, and serious illnesses that increased in that same time frame.

Condition

What has changed between ~2000 and now, while our refined seed oil consumption doubled

Key Clarification

Primary Data Source

Child Obesity Childhood obesity prevalence has increased since 2000 and now affects ~1 in 5 U.S. children and adolescents. Worse in food deserts, where seed oils are most difficult to avoid. CDC NHANES: https://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/childhood.html
Autism Spectrum Disorder Autism prevalence has increased approximately 4–5× since 2000 (from ~1 in 150 to ~1 in 31 children). Diagnostic changes explain part, but not all, of the increase. CDC ADDM Network: https://www.cdc.gov/autism/data-research/index.html
Parkinson’s Disease Parkinson’s disease prevalence has risen substantially since 2000; increases exceed population aging alone. Aging and improved detection contribute, but age-adjusted incidence has also increased. Parkinson’s Foundation: https://www.parkinson.org/understanding-parkinsons/statistics
Cancer (Under Age 50) Incidence of multiple cancers in adults under 50 has increased since 2000, including colorectal and other metabolism-linked cancers. Not fully explained by screening or diagnostic changes; overall mortality is declining due to early detection. NCI / NIH: https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/cancer-currents-blog/2020/early-onset-colorectal-cancer
College Student Mental Illness Reported anxiety, depression, and related mental health conditions among college students have increased markedly since the early 2000s. Those who solely blame social media for this may be unaware of the newer research showing mental health improves when metabolic health improves. Healthy Minds Study: https://healthymindsnetwork.org/research/
Infertility Infertility affects ~1 in 6 people of reproductive age globally; prevalence remains high and may be increasing in some subgroups. Delaying childbearing explains only part of the burden. WHO: https://www.who.int/news/item/04-04-2023-1-in-6-people-globally-affected-by-infertility

Among the most promising causal mechanisms that I’ve been studying are the oxidation products that develop in seed oils, particularly toxic aldehydes. It’s well established that toxic aldehydes in our diets can disrupt mitochondrial function, promote inflammation, and destroy cell membrane integrity. Unfortunately, most dietitians today are not taught that foods made with refined seed oils contain varying amounts of toxic aldehydes, and as a result, deny they exist. This disconnect needs to change. But there are many barriers standing in the way. Those barriers include some of our most powerful industries, listed on chart 4.

Chart #4: Industries that benefit from seed oils being promoted as healthy.

Sector

Representative Companies / Examples

How They Benefit From Seed Oils

Why the Status Quo Matters

Seed Oil Manufacturers Unilever, Cargill, ADM, Bunge Seed oils are cheap to produce, highly shelf-stable, and easily refined at an industrial scale. They benefit indirectly from low, stable oilseed prices created upstream. Removing or reducing seed oils would disrupt a core commodity market tied to large-scale corn and soy production.
Packaged / Processed Food Industry Kraft Heinz, General Mills, Nestlé, PepsiCo Seed oils enable ultra-processed formulations by improving texture, palatability, and shelf life at very low cost. Reformulating away from seed oils raises costs, shortens shelf life, and undermines existing product lines.
Food Service & Institutional Suppliers Sysco, US Foods, Aramark, Sodexo, Compass Group Seed oils are inexpensive, neutral-tasting, and compatible with centralized cooking, frying, and reheating at scale. Federal nutrition standards shape procurement; a saturated-fat cap effectively locks seed oils into large contracts.
Restaurant & Fast-Food Sector McDonald’s, Yum! Brands, Restaurant Brands International Frying oils must be cheap, stable, and reusable; refined seed oils meet operational needs at scale. Switching fats would raise costs and require supply-chain, equipment, and menu changes.
Agricultural Commodity Processors USDA commodity system; large grain handlers Oilseed crops provide a high-volume outlet for subsidized corn and soy production. Dietary guidelines indirectly sustain demand for oilseed crops and their downstream processing.
Healthcare & Pharmaceutical Industry Pfizer, Merck, Eli Lilly High prevalence of chronic metabolic disease sustains long-term demand for medications. Nutrition policy that fails to address upstream drivers preserves treatment-focused models.
Financial & Investment Stakeholders Index funds, private equity, pension exposure Many of the above sectors are heavily represented in broad market indices and institutional portfolios. Systemic change would affect multiple sectors simultaneously, creating financial resistance to reform.
Subsidized Crop Growers Corn, soy, and oilseed farmers supported by federal programs Federal subsidies, crop insurance, and price supports reduce risk and encourage high-volume production of oilseed crops. The status quo incentivizes overproduction of crops whose primary economic value is realized through processing into oils and ultra-processed foods, with much of the original nutritional value lost.

Our future depends on strategy.

Our culture is addicted to cheap calories, and these industrial seed oils are not isolated ingredients that can be swapped out without consequences. They are embedded across agriculture, manufacturing, institutional procurement, and clinical guidance. Entire supply chains—farms, farm equipment, fertilizers, university agricultural departments, oil refineries, packaged food formulators, foodservice distributors, and institutional kitchens—depend on refined seed oils.

Dr Cate’s List of Eight Unhealthy Refined Seed Oils, “The Hateful Eight”

That is why this issue is so resistant to change. A policy shift that meaningfully highlights the need for more rigorous research on seed oils is not a superficial messaging change. It alters what questions are considered legitimate to ask, which determines what hypotheses earn funding. And that’s been a real problem for science itself. I’ve spoken to a number of respected researchers who’ve told me they face constant challenges doing the work they do because the people who decide what grants get funded assume the issue is already settled, and their grant requests get denied.

Explicitly recognizing the ‘hateful eight’ seed oils as highly processed and potentially problematic creates space for proper investigation into their biological effects. If we want to move the needle on chronic disease, we have to move the needle on a nutrition narrative that has a 40-year-plus track record of failure.

Highlighting seed oils as a group that deserves further study is foundational to making positive change. It lifts the structural constraints that have prevented scientists from paying much attention to these oils, and makes much needed change possible.

That is why this moment matters. Not because one policy may or may not change this year, but because it makes clear that progress on chronic disease will require a new research strategy, not just new statistics based on the old nutrition ideology.

 

With over two decades of clinical experience and expertise in genetic and biochemical research, Dr. Cate can help you to reverse metabolic disease and reshape your body.

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